GA 2.8 Report: Ice Ice Baby

CEGM1000 MUDE.

Questions 3 and 4 are the most important for this assignment. They are weighted roughly 2-3 times more than the others.

Questions

Questions 1: Describe the probability associated with winning the Ice Classic when purchasing a single ticket. Describe the range of values possible and illustrate your description using values reported in a Markdown table.

Your answer here.

Question 2: Notebook 3 illustrates how you can change the probability model for breakup day and time. Using the information in the PDF from Week 1.1, make an adjustment to the probability model and report how this improves the probability of winning.

The PDF can be found here. This question simply quantifies the change you made lists the reasons why it may increase your chances of winning.

Your answer here.

Question 3: Justify why you changed the distribution in Question 3 and indicate how MUDE methods would help you quantify this decision, if you had more time.

In this question you should try to indicate how the data informs your decision to change the distribution parameters. To explain how this could be quantified, list three examples of analyses that could be completed using MUDE methods. You should also provide a brief explanation of why each analysis would be useful and which data it would use.

Your answer here.

Question 4: come up with a ticket combination that seems to maximize your chances of winning, without taking on an undesirable level of (financial) risk. Explain your thought process for selecting the chosen ticket combination. You are free to use the original distribution or an altered one (as long as you justify it).

Your answer here.

Question 5: Make a Bet! Fill out the file ticket.md and also submit a paper ticket.

This question can be completely unrelated to the more formal analysis above---have fun with it! Decide with your group what your bet will be with your real Ice Classic ticket. Remember that the closest MUDE group to the real minute will win a prize from Robert, and if one of us wins the real thing we will all split the payout!

You don't need to write anything in this file, only the ticket.md file.

Question 6: confirm that you did the following.

Did you know you can use checkboxes in Markdown? Try it out as you mark each task as complete by filling the empty [ ] with an x like this [x].

General Comments on the Assignment [optional]

Use this space to let us know if you encountered any issues completing this assignment (but please keep it short!). For example, if you encountered an error that could not be fixed in your Python code, or perhaps there was a problem submitting something via GitLab. You can also let us know if the instructions were unclear. You can delete this section if you don't use it.

End of file.

By MUDE Team © 2024 TU Delft. CC BY 4.0. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.16782515.